CBAM cost per tonne of steel and aluminium from China, 2026-2034

With the EU default values for China, CBAM costs about 179 € per tonne of hot-rolled steel (CN 7208), about 177 € per tonne of semi-finished steel (CN 7207) and about 157 € per tonne of unwrought aluminium (CN 7601) in 2026, at the official third-quarter 2026 certificate price of 82.32 €. The cost rises every year as the EU phases out free allocation: at the same price it reaches about 283 €, 281 € and 261 € per tonne in 2030, and about 341 €, 339 € and 321 € from 2034. If the supplier has verified actual emissions below the default value, these figures come down.

Calculate it by product and year

With the starting values (hot-rolled steel, 2026, 25 t at 82.32 €), each tonne needs 2.170 certificates: the default value of 3.506 t CO2e, which already includes the 10% mark-up, minus 1.336 t of free-allocation adjustment (97.5% × 1.370). That is 178.65 € per tonne and 4,466.37 € for the 25 t. It is an illustrative calculation, not the one the authority will make.

The formula, step by step

The importer surrenders one certificate per tonne of embedded CO2e, minus an adjustment that reflects the free allowances EU plants still receive (Article 31 of Regulation 2023/956). With default values, the adjustment is the year’s CBAM factor times the correction factor times the product’s benchmark (Implementing Regulation 2025/2620).

emissions    = default × (1 + markup)
adjustment   = factor × correction × benchmark
certificates = emissions − adjustment
€/t          = certificates × price

• China default value, in t CO2e per tonne (Implementing Regulation 2025/2621, whose Annex I was replaced, with effect from 1 January 2026, by Implementing Regulation 2026/1740): 3.000 for unwrought aluminium 7601, 3.187 for hot-rolled flat steel 7208 and 3.169 for semi-finished steel 7207 that is cast or rolled (3.314 if forged). For steel and aluminium only direct emissions count (Annex II of Regulation 2023/956).
• Mark-up on the default value: 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 (Regulation 2025/2621). For 7208 that gives 3.506 in 2026 and 4.143 from 2028; for 7207, 3.486 and 4.120; for 7601, 3.300 and 3.900. The 2027 values in the table come from applying the 20%.
• Default benchmark (Column B of point 5 of the Annex to Regulation 2025/2620): 1.370 for 7208 and 1.364 for cast or rolled 7207, on the blast furnace route, and 1.423 for primary aluminium. With default values, the route is the one Regulation 2025/2621 gives for the country of origin, and for China it gives blast furnace for steel and primary aluminium for 7601.
• Cross-sectoral correction factor: 100% from 2026 to 2030 (Implementing Decision 2026/1862).
• Certificate price for goods imported in 2026: the quarterly average of the closing prices of EU ETS allowances in the quarter of import (Article 21(1a) of Regulation 2023/956, inserted by Regulation 2025/2083). The Commission published 75.36 € for the first quarter, 75.28 € for the second and 82.32 € for the third (the latter on 5 October 2026). The fourth-quarter price is due on 4 January 2027. The calculator starts from the latest one published.

Forged 7207 semi-finished steel has a different default value (3.314) and benchmark (1.629): the calculator does not cover it.

Why the cost rises every year

Two things push the cost up. The mark-up on the default value goes from 10% to 30% between 2026 and 2028. And the CBAM factor, the share of free allocation still deducted, falls under Directive 2023/959: 97.5% in 2026, 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032, 14% in 2033 and none from 2034.

At the same 82.32 € price, a tonne of Chinese hot-rolled steel goes from 179 € in 2026 to 283 € in 2030 and 341 € from 2034. A tonne of 7207 semi-finished steel goes from 177 € to 281 € and 339 €. A tonne of unwrought aluminium goes from 157 € to 261 € and 321 €. From 2034 there is no adjustment left: the whole default value is paid.

Only importers above the threshold of 50 net tonnes a year, summing all CN codes, pay; and an importer above it pays for everything imported that year, not only for what exceeds 50 t. The CBAM 50-tonne threshold guide explains how it works.

Why published estimates disagree

For the same tonne of Chinese steel or aluminium, figures from under 4 € to about 150 € or more are in circulation. The gap comes from where the 97.5% is applied.

• Some estimates land near 3.75 € per tonne. They read the 97.5% CBAM factor as a discount on the product’s emissions and charge only the remaining 2.5%. But the factor does not apply to the product’s emissions: it applies to the EU benchmark, which is far lower than the Chinese default value.
• Others land near 140-150 € for Chinese aluminium in 2026, in line with this calculation at the second-quarter price: (3.300 − 0.975 × 1.423) × 75.28 = 143.98 €. At the third-quarter price of 82.32 € it is 157.44 €.

In 2026 the adjustment removes about 38% of the certificates for hot-rolled steel (1.336 of 3.506) and about 42% for aluminium (1.387 of 3.300), not 97.5%.

Actual emissions and carbon paid in China

Default values can be replaced by the installation’s actual emissions if an accredited verifier verifies them (Regulation 2025/2083, recital 19). Actual emissions carry no mark-up. Enter the verified figure in the calculator to see the effect; the calculator keeps the same benchmark, which is a simplification.

A carbon price paid in the country of origin can be deducted (Article 9 as amended in 2025). With actual emissions, the price effectively paid is deducted, certified by a third party. With default values, only through default carbon prices that the Commission may publish from 2027. As of 1 October 2026 there was no approved act allowing the price of China’s carbon market to be deducted, so this calculation deducts nothing.

What is not known yet

• Benchmarks from 2027. They may be revised; as of 1 October 2026 the revised ones had not been published. The table uses the current ones for every year.
• Default values from 2028. They are to be revised before December 2027, so the 4.143 and 3.900 may change.
• The correction factor from 2031. It is only set until 2030; the calculator assumes 100% and marks it with an asterisk.
• Each year’s certificate price. Only the first three quarters of 2026 are known. For other years the price you enter is applied.

For all these reasons, the figures on this page are an estimate under the published rules, not an official calculation. More guides on importing from China are in the guides index.

What HeavyDeals does with CBAM

HeavyDeals, the commercial system for industrial distribution, adds up your net mass of CBAM goods for the calendar year from the purchase order, compares it with the 50-tonne threshold and warns when data is missing. The mill’s verified emissions travel with each order: with them, the calculation above runs on your actual data instead of the default value. See how it works.

Every figure and rule was checked against the sources above, on the date shown next to each; last review of this guide: 11 October 2026. The examples use illustrative figures, not today’s quotes. This is not legal or tax advice. Written with the help of AI and reviewed by the HeavyDeals team.